Posted by Prof Neil Carter
Most people living in or around York will be voting in one of two constituencies: York Central or York Outer. Since the last general election the Boundary Commission has redrawn the electoral map to create something akin to a doughnut : York Central corresponds to the inner city of York, whilst York Outer completely encircles York Central by linking up all the surrounding villages and conurbations, such as Huntington, New Earswick, Osbaldwick, Heslington (including the University campus), Fulford, Bishopthorpe and Rawcliffe. Students living on campus, will be registered in York Outer, but the majority of students living off campus will be in York Central.
York Central is very similar to the old City of York constituency, currently held by Labour. Hugh Bayley, the incumbent MP, is standing again for Labour and must be favourite to win. He had a majority of just over 10,000 in 2005, which would have been roughly the same had the last election been fought on the new boundaries. However, he is likely to be pushed much harder by the Conservatives, who just edged out the Liberal Democrats to come second in 2005. Historically, York has been a classic Labour-Conservative marginal: between 1987-1992 it had the smallest Conservative majority (147 votes) in the country. After Bayley won it for Labour in 1992 he built up a thumping 20,000 majority, but that halved over the two subsequent elections, and although it is not a top Conservative target seat I expect the Conservative candidate, Susan Wade-Weeks, to make it quite a close contest this year. The Liberal Democrats have never really built up a strong base within the city, but they have a strong presence in local politics and if the party does well through the national campaign, then their candidate, Christian Vassie, could make this a three horse contest. The Greens almost saved their deposit in 2005 and have built up local roots through their two councillors in Fishergate ward: success for the Green candidate, Andy Chase, would be to secure the 5% needed to save his deposit, but I wonder if Labour defectors to the Greens in 2005 may return to Labour with the prospect of a close national result? UKIP did well in Yorkshire in the 2009 European elections and their candidate, Paul Abbott, will be hoping to attract the strong local anti-EU vote.
York Outer is a completely new constituency made up wards from several constituencies: Vale of York, Ryedale, Selby and City of York. It has been calculated that the notional result in 2005 would have given this seat to the Liberal Democrats, very narrowly ahead of the Conservatives. In short, it is a genuine Liberal Democrat-Conservative marginal seat. In the 2007 local elections, the Liberal Democrats won 16 of the council seats that make up the constituency and the Conservatives won 8, but the Liberal Democrats tend to perform better in local elections. Madeleine Kirk, the Liberal Democrat candidate, has plenty of campaigning experience, having contested Yorkshire seats in the last three elections, and she will be working hard to persuade Labour voters to support her if they don’t want the seat to fall to the Conservatives. The Conservative candidate, Julian Sturdy, will have strong support from the national party as York Outer is number 3 on the Conservatives’ list of target seats – essentially it is a seat they must win to form the next government. The upshot is that the Labour candidate, James Alexander (a former University of York student), may well find that his vote is severely squeezed as this election becomes a two-horse contest. That said, the UKIP candidate, Judith Morris, may well find strong minority support in the rural fringes of York for her party’s anti-EU message. Because it is a marginal seat, I expect York Outer to receive considerable media attention during the campaign - and that all the candidates will be promising that they best represent the interests of York students!
