Posted by Dr Jim Buller
Tomorrow sees the second leadership debate which will be held on the subject of international affairs. What role will international affairs play in the forthcoming election and what should we expect from the leadership debate tomorrow night?
Historically, international affairs have rarely played a prominent or important role in British election campaigns. It is true that many commentators cite Margaret Thatcher’s ability to exploit Falklands War as a decisive factor in securing a Conservative victory in the 1983 General Election. More recently, it is argued that Blair’s decision to support the US invasion of Iraq was primarily responsible for the significant drop in support that Labour experienced at the 2005 election.
However, the work of academics in the 1980s has cast doubt on the importance of the so-called ‘Falklands factor’. For example, Dave Marsh, David Sanders and Hugh Ward have argued that it was the nascent recovery of the British economy which was more important in explaining Conservative success in 1983. Moreover, the Iraq issue itself may have been less responsible for declining Labour fortunes in 2005 than is sometimes believed. Instead it was how this issue amplified the electorate’s mistrust of Blair, not to mention how it fed in to the broader climate of scepticism towards the political classes, that was crucial. And therein lies the rub. International issues on their own rarely influence electoral choice in the UK. But they can make a difference if they impact more generally on perceptions of leadership competence or party unity. Europe and its impact on the Major Government in the 1990s would be another example in this context.
So what are the key issues between the parties in the area of foreign and defence policy, and what are we to expect in the debate tomorrow night? On the issue of Europe, all parties have pledged to cooperate with their European partners and work through the EU to deliver a range of goals, ranging from economic policy through to the environment. The Conservative manifesto is notably more sceptical, with proposals to: ensure that no Tory government would pool sovereignty in any area of policy in the future without a referendum of the British people; renationalise competence in certain area, such as employment policy and criminal justice; and to introduce a Sovereignty Bill which would make it clear that ultimately authority in Britain ‘stays in this country, in our parliament’.
On the issue of defence, all parties have accepted that a strategic defence review will have to be held after the election, amid longstanding reports that there is an unsustainable gap between the commitments of British armed forces and the resources available to meet them. Arguably the most eye-catching of proposals is the Lib Dem promise to rule out the like-for-like replacement of Trident, something that the Conservatives and Labour oppose. On the more specific issue of Afghanistan, there is a wide-ranging consensus. All three parties have pledged to keep working towards a stable, peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan, while at the same time pressing other NATO members to take on more of the burden in this military theatre.
So what should we expect from the debate tomorrow night? Of course making predictions is a risky business. However, bearing in mind Clegg’s success in the first debate, I would be surprised if both Brown and Cameron don’t challenge him on the Lib Dem proposals concerning Trident. What will be interesting is how aggressive these attacks are. Currently Labour’s best bet for staying in office looks like a coalition with the Lib Dems. Moreover, recent media reports suggest that Cameron will continue to desist from a more belligerent stance towards Clegg, preferring to try to portray himself in these debates as a Prime Minster in waiting. Hostile or not, how well Clegg deals with these attacks will be an important factor in terms of whether the Lib Dems can sustain their momentum from the first debate.
I would expect Brown to be criticised for his record (as Chancellor) of funding the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and his perceived ambivalence towards the armed forces. If the audience contains members who have lost their sons in battle, and one is allowed to ask a question, then things could get sticky for Brown. I suspect Labour strategists will have spent a lot of time this week preparing for this eventuality.
Finally, how big an issue Europe will play in the debate is not clear. The Tories’ more Euro-sceptical stance will be attacked by Brown and Clegg. Cameron’s recent decision to pull the Conservatives out of the European People’s Party will be portrayed as evidence that Britain will become a weaker and more marginalised member of the EU if the Conservatives get back into power. Cameron in return may try to highlight the more pro-European stance of the Lib Dems, in the hope that such attacks will resonate with Euro-sceptical British voters. But, as mentioned above, Europe as an issue is not high on the electorate’s list of priorities, something that all three leaders understand. As a result, it is not clear how animated these exchanges over Europe will become.
Overall, this debate offers a range of issues that the Tories, and Cameron in particular, ought to do well on. If he cannot score higher than the first debate, and Clegg continues to do well, then things may get even more interesting than they already are.
