Posted by Prof David Howell
Expectation of a hung parliament and Liberal optimism call up memories of February 1974. A few weeks ago the BBC ran the complete night-next day coverage of that election in order to make the point. The parallel was made to me in much more earthy terms by Dennis Skinner as the election was about to be called. Yet 1974 was a different political planet, the miners' strike, the three day week, Edward Heath asking "Who Governs?", Harold Wilson
looking very much a loser and Jeremy Thorpe down in Devon as yet untouched, at least in public, by scandal.
The language of conflict and crisis expressed a politics of class with its inequalities that has been airbrushed from this campaign. In Scotland and Wales the Nationalists made advances that shocked English provincialism. The election meant the ratification of a shift to intransigent Unionism, the prelude to the Ulster Workers' strike that smashed the first fragile attempt at power sharing. 1974 was a milestone on the road to Thatcher, arguably on the road to Scottish and Welsh devolution and definitely killed any serious British belief in an early settlement in the Six Counties. Politics would never be the same again. To borrow from Yeats, in 1974 "All changed, changed utterly. A terrible beauty is born".
Perhaps some expectations now are born of too easy a transfer from this very different world. In February 1974 Labour led the Conservatives by four seats but received fewer votes. The Liberal rise from a much lower base than now drew differentially from the Conservatives. Labour could call on sentiments of solidarity in its core support now eroded by Thatcher's destruction of communities and Blair's pursuit of Middle England. Immediate
reactions by politicians and commentators suggest a belief in something similar but the export of beliefs to different contexts is a dubious aid to understanding.
I remember the Saturday morning after the February election, walking along Downing Street. Behind the door of No 10 Heath was refusing to quit and was seeking a deal with Thorpe. In 1974 a hung parliament was seen as an abnormality. Once Heath's attempt had failed Wilson headed a minority government, cut no deals and tried for a majority in an October election achieving only the thinnest of margins. Now with the prospect of a hung
parliament a serious possibility the past may be an inadequate guide. Much depends on the size of the parliamentary parties and the Liberal contingent unlike in 1974 will be a major player.
February 1974 became a keenly fought contest with a high turnout against a dramatic backdrop of power cuts and candles, a growing sense that the major parties were losing control of the spectacle. Now the power cuts and candles are echoes of a lost world but the loss of control is palpable. I remember the excitement of that night 36 years ago, maybe May 6 will in that respect be another 1974.
Expectation of a hung parliament and Liberal optimism call up memories of February 1974. A few weeks ago the BBC ran the complete night-next day coverage of that election in order to make the point. The parallel was made to me in much more earthy terms by Dennis Skinner as the election was about to be called. Yet 1974 was a different political planet, the miners' strike, the three day week, Edward Heath asking "Who Governs?", Harold Wilson
looking very much a loser and Jeremy Thorpe down in Devon as yet untouched, at least in public, by scandal.
The language of conflict and crisis expressed a politics of class with its inequalities that has been airbrushed from this campaign. In Scotland and Wales the Nationalists made advances that shocked English provincialism. The election meant the ratification of a shift to intransigent Unionism, the prelude to the Ulster Workers' strike that smashed the first fragile attempt at power sharing. 1974 was a milestone on the road to Thatcher, arguably on the road to Scottish and Welsh devolution and definitely killed any serious British belief in an early settlement in the Six Counties. Politics would never be the same again. To borrow from Yeats, in 1974 "All changed, changed utterly. A terrible beauty is born".
Perhaps some expectations now are born of too easy a transfer from this very different world. In February 1974 Labour led the Conservatives by four seats but received fewer votes. The Liberal rise from a much lower base than now drew differentially from the Conservatives. Labour could call on sentiments of solidarity in its core support now eroded by Thatcher's destruction of communities and Blair's pursuit of Middle England. Immediate
reactions by politicians and commentators suggest a belief in something similar but the export of beliefs to different contexts is a dubious aid to understanding.
I remember the Saturday morning after the February election, walking along Downing Street. Behind the door of No 10 Heath was refusing to quit and was seeking a deal with Thorpe. In 1974 a hung parliament was seen as an abnormality. Once Heath's attempt had failed Wilson headed a minority government, cut no deals and tried for a majority in an October election achieving only the thinnest of margins. Now with the prospect of a hung
parliament a serious possibility the past may be an inadequate guide. Much depends on the size of the parliamentary parties and the Liberal contingent unlike in 1974 will be a major player.
February 1974 became a keenly fought contest with a high turnout against a dramatic backdrop of power cuts and candles, a growing sense that the major parties were losing control of the spectacle. Now the power cuts and candles are echoes of a lost world but the loss of control is palpable. I remember the excitement of that night 36 years ago, maybe May 6 will in that respect be another 1974.
