Posted by Dr Roger Mac Ginty, University of St Andrews
The election in Northern Ireland matters greatly to the people of Northern Ireland – some constituencies there regularly produce the highest turnouts. In the rest of the UK, the election in the Northern Ireland is usually confined to a few words at the end of the news bulletin. But if this election produces a hung parliament, then one of the major UK parties might depend on MPs from Northern Ireland.
There are eighteen constituencies up for grabs. In 2005 Ian Paisley’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) were winners with nine seats, followed by the pro-united Ireland Sinn Féin with five, the moderately nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) with three and the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) – traditionally Northern Ireland’s largest party – with just one. Issues such as the economy, the cuts facing the public sector, the war in Afghanistan, or global warming don’t really matter in Northern Ireland elections. Instead, the polls become sectarian headcounts in which Catholic nationalists and Protestant unionists primarily vote to stop being represented by an MP from the other side. Added into the mix are the intra-group battles, in which Sinn Féin and the SDLP vie to be the pre-eminent representatives of Catholic-nationalists and the DUP and UUP vie to be the leaders of Protestant-unionism.
For this election, a few interesting dynamics have been thrown into the mix. Firstly, a new party, Traditional Ulster Voice (TUV), has emerged to represent those unionists who feel that the DUP has betrayed the unionist cause by entering into the devolved power-sharing Assembly with Sinn Féin. TUV regards Sinn Féin as ‘unreconstructed terrorists’. While it may not take any seats, TUV will draw votes away from the DUP. Its energetic leader, Jim Allister, is proving to be a major irritant for Ian Paisley Junior in the North Antrim constituency. Secondly, it will be interesting to see if the DUP have been damaged by the various shenanigans involving Northern Ireland’s power couple, Peter and Iris Robinson. Iris is standing down at this election, but revelations about her private life are bound to have an impact on DUP supporters who favour less forgiving strands of Christianity. Moreover, persistent allegations about the Robinsons’ property dealings, and Peter’s increasingly angry rebuttals (he’s had a few television meltdowns), may mean that the DUP’s recent electoral ascendency has reached its high point.
A third ‘unpredictable’ in this election is the extent to which sex abuse allegations concerning Sinn Féin Gerry Adams’ brother impact on the Party’s share of the vote. My guess is that it will have little effect, but what if further allegations emerge over the coming weeks? Moreover, having been in the devolved Northern Ireland government for a number of years, Sinn Féin can no longer claim to be ‘revolutionary’, ‘excluded’ or ‘outsiders’ – all slogans they used to mobilise their vote in the past. Militant ‘dissident’ republican groups are likely to try to stage some attacks in the run up to the election in the hope of embarrassing Sinn Féin.
A final unpredictable comes from the unionist unity pact in the Fermanagh South Tyrone constituency. This seat is held by Sinn Féin, but the DUP, UUP and TUV have declined to field candidates. Instead they are supporting an independent unionist. Cue a nasty sectarian headcount that pits Catholic voter against Protestant voter. Demography makes this one difficult to call. But the interesting aspect of this sectarian battle is that it is supported by David Cameron. How? Well, the Ulster Unionist Party has formally merged with the Conservatives to form the ‘Ulster Conservative and Unionists – New Force’. And this party – with a formal link to the Tories – is not standing in Fermanagh South Tyrone in order to facilitate a unionist victory. Bet David Cameron won’t mention that in the remaining debates: ‘Come and join the Big Society – except if you’re a Catholic from Northern Ireland’. Just after the close of nominations, Sinn Féin withdrew their candidate from the South Belfast constituency to leave just one nationalist candidate (SDLP) against two unionists. The unionists may come to a voting pact in that constituency in the coming days.
For once, a genuinely interesting electoral battle awaits us in Northern Ireland. Who knows, if none of the main UK parties can muster a working government, they may have to come calling to the Northern Ireland parties, most likely the DUP (as Sinn Féin refuses to take its seats in Westminster). Fasten your seat belt though. The DUP Environment Minister denies that climate change is manmade. Perhaps he could be your next Environment Minister? Even if one of the UK parties gets a slim majority, attrition (by-elections, rebellions and defections) is likely to mean that some sort of arrangement will have to be made with minor parties. Cue some very dirty deals that will cost the UK taxpayer a lot of money.
You can follow NI election on journalist Eamonn Mallie’s twitter page (http://twitter.com/eamonnmallie) or on the Slugger O’Toole blog (http://www.sluggerotoole.com/)
